Tourism can be considered one of the most remarkable
socio-economic phenomena of the twentieth century.
From an activity “enjoyed by only a small group of relatively
well-off people” during the first half of the last
century, it gradually became a mass phenomenon during
the post-World War II period, particularly from the 1970s
onwards.1 It now reaches an increasingly larger number
of people throughout the world and can be considered a
vital dimension of global integration.2
Although domestic tourism currently accounts for
approximately 80% of all tourist activity (UN, 1999a),
many countries tend to give priority to international
tourism because, while the former basically involves a
regional redistribution of national income, the latter has
now become the world’s largest source of foreign
exchange receipts. According to the latest figures compiled
by the World Tourism Organization (WTO), foreign
exchange earnings from international tourism reached a
peak of US$ 476 billion in 2000, which was larger than
the export value of petroleum products, motor vehicles,
telecommunications equipment or any other single category
of product or service (WTO, 2001a).
International tourist arrivals grew at an annual
average rate of 4.3% during the 1990s, despite major
international political and economic crises, such as the
Gulf War and the Asian financial crisis.3 According to the
latest WTO figures, the turn of the millennium recorded
one of the most impressive annual growth rates in international
tourism. As table 1 shows, all regions of the
world recorded significant growth in international
tourism in 2000, during which the number of international
arrivals grew at an extraordinary rate of nearly 7% to
reach almost 700 million arrivals.
The September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United
States, however, appear to have had a more serious
impact on the tourist sector than any other major international
crisis in recent decades. The attacks had a particularly
severe impact on air transport, business travel and
long-haul travel. Worldwide travel reservations were
estimated to have dropped by 15% at the end of October
2001, although not every destination nor every part of the
tourism sector was badly affected (see WTO, 2001c). For
example, while air transport and luxury hotels have suffered
from considerable fall in demand, travel within the
same country or region, as well as travel by rail and road,
appear to have weathered the worst effects of the crisis,
or even benefited from it.
Nevertheless, initial forecasts of 3-4% rise in international
tourist arrivals for 2001, made before the
September 2001 attacks, were subsequently revised
downwards to around a 1% increase over the 2000 figures
(WTO, 2001c). The latest WTO (2002) data show
that there was an actual decline of 0.6% in international
arrivals, to a total of 693 million, in 2001. Given that the
northern hemisphere summer holiday season was coming
to end by the time the attacks took place, this significant
drop confirms that the short-term impacts of the attacks
were devastating to international tourism as a whole. The
last four months of 2001, in fact, recorded a drop of
almost 9% in arrivals worldwide and substantial decreases
in all regions of the world
It is worth noting, however, that this considerable
fall in international arrivals was caused not only by a
widespread fear of traveling generated by the attacks—
particularly in airplanes and to certain destinations—but
also by a downturn in the world economy. The economic
downturn that began in the United States during the first
half of 2001 had already been affecting the tourism sector
before the terrorist attacks were carried out. The
attacks aggravated the economic slowdown already
under way.4 The expected recovery in world tourism in
the near future will thus depend on the evolution of the
world economy, amongst other factors, including the possibility
of further terrorist acts or regional conflicts.
Some destinations will in any case experience a prolonged
decline in tourism revenues—regardless of any
world economic improvements—for various reasons,
including proximity to areas of regional conflict.
In the medium and long term, however, international
tourism is expected to resume its rapid growth, in view
of rising living standards and discretionary incomes,
falling real costs of travel, expansion and improvement
of various transport modes, increasing amounts of free
time and other factors. This helps to explain why WTO
(2001c) has reiterated its long-term forecasts, made
before the September 2001 attacks, of an average annual
growth rate in international arrivals of over 4% in the
period up to 2020. The number of international arrivals is
thus expected to reach the striking mark of 1 billion by
2010 and 1.6 billion by 2020
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